Small Percentages

We’re getting to the point where even the most optimistic Aston Villa supporter is having their belief in their club reaching the play-offs tested. After getting in a handful of what would be top end players in the Championship in the summer, with a new manager and owner, it felt like the reset button had been pressed and promotion from the Championship was a realistic ambition.

It didn’t work out, but then we got the mooted Championship promotion king in Steve Bruce, again there was to be no sustained upturn in fortune. In terms of the odds, you’d be better off gambling your money on sites like www.bestukcasino.org.uk rather than bothering the bookies.

“If we can string three wins together we’d be right back amongst the play-off spots” we’d kid ourselves. Any burst of results that came, Bruce had us three points off the play-off spots at one stage, wasn’t maintained.

There is still hope amongst fans, but not according to SAM.

SAM’s Calculations

SAM aka Sports Analytics Machine, is the super-computer built by Ian McHale, professor of sports analytics at the University of Salford and his colleague Dr Tarak Kharrat.

As reported on BBC Online (see full story here), the computer was given the task of predicting the result of every Championship match between now and the end of the season on 7 May.

It maintains that Newcastle and Brighton will fill the automatic promotion spots at the end of the season, but most human brains would come to that conclusion.

In terms of the play-offs though, these were the most likely teams:

Will your team finish in the play-offs?

Leeds United – 72%
Sheffield Wednesday -72%
Derby County – 56%
Reading – 53%
Huddersfield Town – 41%
Norwich City – 31%
Fulham – 23%

(% probability calculated by SAM)

Villa? SAM calculates they will finish 12th on 64 points after 46 games and gives them a 6% chance overall of making the play-offs.

6%? It’s not looking good…

How these things tend to be calculated though, tend to rely on what has gone before. As the BBC writes:

‘SAM takes into account a wide range of factors to work out match results, looking at average performances so far and calculating what that means for the remaining fixtures. It is based on players remaining fit and continuing with their average performance levels.’

So Villa can obviously improve on that 6% chance by bolstering their squad with the right players in January, getting Kodjia and Ayew back, and quite frankly by stop messing around in the remaining games of the season.

After spending over £100m in the last two summers compared to what most other clubs in the Championship are able to spend, you’d expect the play-offs to be a bare minimum to the ambition of this season.

It’s interesting that the computer doesn’t take notice of such spend and reputation, it just boils it down to the fact Villa just haven’t been good enough.

There’s still time and Villa need every wake-up call they can get, even this one from SAM.

UTV

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2 COMMENTS

  1. Of course Lansbury played a big part in the 1st half performance against PNE but perhaps there was another & bigger factor and that was the team line up . After all by all reports ( I had to suffice with the live commentary) the team apparently looked to have balance . Something that has been missing for quiet some time . And that was down to playing with 2 proper wingers in Adomah & Green . The later making his 1st full debute in the 1st team after good performance for the U23’s earlier in the week . And hopefully it will be the 1st of many if his performance was anything like how he performed for the U23’s

  2. Lansbury will certainly help, but not on his own, play offs gone now but we are far from a compete team I still believe we need another defender another midfielder and now that McCormack has shown his true colours we need to shell out and get in Rhodes he and Kodjia as a partnership would be ideal, easy to say but if the cub has ambitions take a loss on McCormack get in Rhodes ASAP.

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