Whether it’s the Villa boss Steve Bruce, the media or some Villa fans on social media, when the subject of Villa’s home form comes up, there’s this notion that it’s been great since we’ve been in the Championship.
Unfortunately, to borrow the words of Tom Fox, this is a false narrative.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s been ok, but certainly not great. Certainly, it’s not good enough for promotion.
The blame for Villa’s failings last season have been mainly laid at the feet of our dreadful away form.
Yes, four wins away are not going to get any club promoted. To be a promotion contender, the bench mark is double figures for away wins, but you must also back that up with at least 15 home wins, which all of the top six last season managed to get.
Championship Home Form 2016/17 Season
Last season Brighton lost the same amount of home games (3) as Villa did, the big difference was though, they won five more home games. That’s 15 points.
Villa’s problem is they have a disease that seems to have hung around from the Alex McLeish days, they draw far too many games and seem to be content to do so.
Only Barnsley and Ipswich drew more home games than Villa last season.
Lets state the obvious, the drawing trend must stop for Villa to threaten the promotion places.
And So It Goes On…
The worrying concern is Villa have already continued their penchant for a home draw into the 2017/18 season, by already drawing three of their opening four home games.
Being unbeaten at home is one thing, but having the 16th best home form is another.
Championship Home Form After Four Games 2017/18
Two of those opening games should have been put away for the win, while you could argue Villa were lucky to get the point against Brentford.
If those games weren’t drawn, even at this stage of the season, those three or four dropped extra points, would have us in touch of the promotion places. It just shows you the impact of winning your home games rather than letting teams off the hook.
This month Villa need to be putting the likes of Nottingham Forest and Bolton to the sword at Villa Park to have any legit claims to mounting a promotion charge.
The return to fitness of Jonathan Kodjia should help, but last season his goals alone failed to lift Villa out of the bottom half come the end of the season.
This season though, Kodjia may have a legitimate strike partner in crime in Keinan Davis. There’s also a midfield littered with players with glowing goals and assist potential.
Hopefully in a month or so, when someone says Villa’s home form is ‘great’, they’ll be speaking the truth.
“Last season Brighton lost the same amount of home games (3) as Villa did, the big difference was though, they won five more home games. That’s 15 points”
This isnt correct, if we lost the same amount of games and they won 5 more games, that means we drew 5
games, and therefore thats 10 points.
Bar that agree with everything, we had pretty good home form last season, turn 3 draws into wins and we get 50 points, which is promotion form, still need a dramatic increase in away performance.
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