Use code MOMS10 for 10% off
A week’s gone by and there’s still a sense of relief in terms of how the Premier League season ended. The new kit launch this week was certainly the first reminder of what we had survived. Whatever the new home kit was going to look like, at least it was a Premier League kit that Villa were wearing next season.
Some of you will remember a chart we ran a couple of times before lockdown, that plotted exactly what kind of progress Villa were on in terms of a likely points tally needed to survive. We called it the ‘Relegation or Not’ chart, or it’s preferred name, ‘The Rasmussen Diagram’, after its creator Kristoffer Rasmussen.
It had been considered that the survival mark based on recent seasons would have been between 36 to 42 points, so Villa’s process was originally charted against those potential points tallies. Of course, Villa being Villa, managed to miss out on that target, yet still survive.
If you were told at the start of the season Villa would finish on 35 points, you’d have been resigned to relegation, but here we are now on the flipside and somehow they did it.
The Rasmussen Diagram
So in the below diagram, you’ll see Villa’s progress charted against where they should be (Points agg) to be on course to get the 35 points they eventually needed.
The dotted line on the graph is the average they needed to stay on course, the purple line is Villa’s actual progress during the season. So you can see where they went off and on course.
At the beginning of the restart, despite being in the bottom three, Villa were surprisingly all set to reach 35 points and survive. It was the first half of the restart where the team started to potentially head tragically off course, hence why their survival was eventually billed as a ‘Great Escape’.
Earlier in the season, any win seemed to put Villa above the curve. But when you look at the blue bars that indicate Villa winning points, there’s certainly a few worrying lean periods throughout the season.
Anyway, what you have in the chart is Villa’s season at a glance. At the end, we were looking doomed for over a eight game stretch during the restart period. Credit to Dean Smith and the players to show the kind of resolve to keep plugging away and eventually pull survival out of the bag, right at the death.
Follow Kristoffer Rasmussen on Twitter here @kristoffer2610