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Half-way to Where?

As we pass the half-way mark in the 2019/20 Premier League season with Aston Villa now placed in the bottom three, Villa supporters are now no doubt getting a bit twitchy. The worst away record in the division, a habit of capitulation against 10-men teams, a porous defence and a lack of threat going forward. I could go on, but in short, the concern over Premier League survival is real.

While social media is already a flood with people over the Christmas period ringing the clanging chimes of doom and shouting #SmithOut, the more level-headed Villans are looking at the bigger picture and how can Smith and Villa get out of their current predicament.

After all, Villa only finished 5th in the Championship last season, and that was only after putting a 10-game winning run together. Villa were a Championship team in transition and now, before they even had to conquer that division, they are now in the Premier League, very much learning on the job, after a large turnover of players.

MOMS will discuss the bigger picture soon in a forthcoming feature and on the My Old Man Said podcast, when it begins again in the New Year.

In the meantime, MOMS reader Kristoffer Rasmussen has sent in his ‘Villa Stay or Villa Go Meter’, or, roughly translated, a progress chart for the rest of the season to see if Villa are heading for relegation or not?

The Villa Relegation or Not Meter

Aston Villa Relegation Chances
Chart by Kristoffer Rasmussen

How it Stacks Up

Based on Premier League history, in terms of survival, anything less than 36 points is a no-no – you’re relegated. Get above 42 points and you’re as good as safe in the Premier League come the end of the season.

In between those two numbers is the danger zone, explains Kristoffer.

So to monitor and illustrate Villa’s progress in the league with stats rather than just gut feeling, he’s put together the following chart, so you too can track Villa’s progress.

While Kristoffer admits, it maybe stating the obvious, the progress chart does illustrate the seriousness of Villa’s current predicament.

There’s certainly some points to be make up already…

UTV

Follow Kristoffer Rasmussen on Twitter here @kristoffer2610

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10 COMMENTS

  1. We need to win 8 more to survive. On current form that looks unrealistic. Feels a lot like it did a few years ago when we went down. Seems to be little ideas by the management team on what we can do. I’m surprised at the state of our defence and the number goals we are conceding. Would have thought JT would ensure the defence being organised better. Thank god for Heaton otherwise we would have been in an even worse position. Expansive 4-3-3 is not working. Neither in defence nor in attack. Oppositions that play 2 strikers against our 2 CBs bully our defence every week. CM is a mess as its full of either dev players like Luiz who will be good in a few years or bang average Championship players like Hourihane(sorry but he is no PL quality). Attack lacks pace and control. Wesley for all his faults gets very little service and spends most games isolated. Dont know why on earth Jack is played on the wing when he is so much better in the middle. I could go on and on. The golden question is why cant the management see this and make changes to the formation.

    • Cheers 👍
      Glad you like it.
      For me it illustrates the character of the mountain we need to climb – but it also shows that we´re really not that far of surviving in the league. I think we can take heart from our performance at Burnley which has also improved the look of the graph.
      I know that I was hoping for 7 or 8 points over Christmas but as it turned out we only got 6. It´s a bit disappointing but again not so far of and we´re still in it. Let´s not panic just yet…
      UTV

  2. I don’t know who is responsible for recruitment, but we made some poor signings and fell for the old quantity over quality. We spent 25+m on nakamba and Luiz when 20-25m Phillips would have been a better option.
    We spent 13m on trezeguet just on seeing him at one afcon tournament, when spending 20-25m on benrahma would have been better.
    We spent 23m on Wesley when spending the same on maupay would have been better.
    We spent 18+m on Engels and hause when signing Webster for 20m would have been better.

    The manager has only plan A of 433 and can’t address the issue of defending corners and free kicks by our box.
    Whereas we let it slide before because we looked good going forward, worryingly the goals have now dried up.

    Whoever decided we could go into a premier League season with a new foreign striker, another who couldn’t even score in the championship (Davis) and kodija who wasn’t even played in the championship last season needs sacking!!
    If that was deanos decision then it shows he is totally out of his depth and clueless.

    • I share your pain but I am not sure that I agree that all of these decisions were wrong. It´s always tricky when you venture into the realm of the counterfactual. Who can really say for sure that those other players would have been better? That´s feelings, really. And also; at the beginning of this season we needed to build more than a team – we needed to build a squad, so for me it made sense to bring in the likes of Jota and to keep on the likes of Keinan. And that process of improving the starting XI and squad is ongoing, and it does take more than one summer window to get to where we all want to be.

      I´m a big fan of Maupay and I can appreciate that he has scored seven goals as opposed to Wesley’s five and this is an important stat. However, a striker needs to do more than score goals (at least if he is 7 in 21 like Maupay). If you look at their passing there is really no difference in how they perform in terms of stats but if you look at the defensive stats you can really appreciate the quality of Wesley. In clearances and headed clearances combined Maupay has 6 in 21 games whereas Wesley has a whopping 41. Maybe that´s worth those two goals?

  3. Suggested team v Burnley, Heaton, Giulbert, Chester, Mings ,Hause, Hourihane, Makamba, Grealish, Al Ghazi. Davies, Wesley. Fitness permitting.

  4. I don’t know how you are qualified to imply that the fans that are calling for DS to go are not level headed, personally I believe they can see that as things stand we are going down, the team selection has been shocking, DS has looked way out of his depth recently, we have bought badly as a club, our scouting leaves a lot to be desired, and unless there are drastic changes sooner rather than later we will be in the Championship next season, so you need to understand before making comments about fans that they pay to watch this rubbish and are entitled to their opinions without being labeled by you or anyone else.

    • I didn’t say they weren’t level headed. I just said, they were less level headed than fans who don’t give up on people who they maybe owe some patience to. I personally wouldn’t want the people calling for his head already next to me in the trenches in a war.

      Of course, there have always been question marks as to whether Smith can cut it at this level, but at least give him a chance.

      • moms you are digging a hole for yourself on this one, imo and colin are bang on for me with there comments. football is all about the manager (Klopp pep sir alex) the players respond and buy into it. or do you want to tell us what the bigger picture is and dig your hole a bit deeper.

        • Sir Alex would have been sacked , if you applied your impatient logic to it. Ferguson had a rocky start, which in today’s game would have seen him out. Some idiots wanted to Klopp out too after his first season. Saying Smith should have more time is no digging a hole at all. As I’ve said, he still has to prove himself in the PL, but we owe him a chance to do so. He is the best chance this club has got in terms of building something lasting. It was always a difficult starting point to do , but with promotion he’s a year ahead of schedule already. If you want some journeyman manager like Big Sam in, then you’ll be on a road to nowhere like most other clubs.

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